Exclusive–Stefanik: Shock Poll Shows Gov. Hochul Could Lose Reelection to Popular Republican

Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) is neck-and-neck in a hypothetical race against Democrat incumbent Kathy Hochul for governor, a new poll found.

Stefanik, a close ally of President Donald Trump, would be the strongest contender to unseat Hochul amongst other potential Republican candidates, according to a recent co/efficient survey obtained by the New York Post.

The independent poll revealed that Hochul, who is up for reelection next year, would have 43 percent of the vote while Stefanik is just a hair behind with 42 percent —  with about 15 percent of New Yorkers undecided:

Stefanik, who became the youngest woman ever elected to Congress in 2014 at the age of 30, also handily won a hypothetical Republican primary matchup against fellow New York Rep. Mike Lawler and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, who respectively received just nine and eight percent compared to the congresswoman’s 56 percent of the vote.

The survey, which garnered responses from nearly 1,200 likely voters in the 2026 gubernatorial election, also revealed Hochul’s 30 percent approval rating — with 57 percent of respondents saying they disapprove of her. 

The same poll also found that Trump received a 44 percent favorability rating from New York voters.

Just 23 percent of respondents said Hochul “deserves reelection,” while nearly two-thirds said they wanted a new governor, the New York Post noted.

“Hochul’s re-elect score further highlights her inherent vulnerability,” co/efficient pollster Ryan Munce told the outlet.

The co/efficient survey results came just a day after a Siena College poll also had Stefanik with a sizable, but tighter, lead against other potential Republican candidates — reporting 35 percent support amongst likely GOP voters compared to 22 percent for Lawler and 11 percent for Blakeman.

While no Republicans have officially entered the gubernatorial race, Stefanik senior adviser Alex DeGrasse exclusively told Breitbart News that she’s a shoein for the governor’s seat “if she decides to run”:

Now we have a second independent poll that shows what everyone knows; there is no question that the single most popular Republican in NY after President Trump is Elise Stefanik. If she decides to run, it’s lights out in the primary and very competitive in the general election, where she can defeat Kathy Hochul to Save New York.

A spokesperson for the Hochul campaign dismissed Stefanik as an “extremist” in a statement to the New York Post, calling her “a staunch Trump loyalist who is gutting New Yorkers’ healthcare and fighting to rip away their rights.”

“We welcome the opportunity to contrast Gov. Hochul’s record of putting money back in New Yorkers’ pockets, supporting our kids, and keeping communities safe with Stefanik’s out-of-touch, divisive and dangerous record — and fast-track her unemployment once and for all,” spokeswoman Jen Goodman added. 

Olivia Rondeau is a politics reporter for Breitbart News based in Washington, DC. Find her on X/Twitter and Instagram.