Analysis: Two Major Mexican Cartels Merge to Form ‘Mega-Cartel’

Two of the most violent cartels in Mexico appear to be joining forces to create a “mega-cartel.” The cartel merger could tip the balance of power in the ongoing Sinaloa Cartel civil war.

The two Narco-terrorist factions that make up the Sinaloa Cartel, the Chapitos and the Mayos, have been involved in a bloody war throughout Mexico for more than 200 days. The record levels of brutal violence in Sinaloa have not waned. It will likely increase to unprecedented levels due to what many consider a consequential reconfiguration of cartel alliances, namely the partnering of the Jalisco Nuevo Generation Cartel (CJNG) and the Los Chapitos faction of the Sinaloa Cartel. The two hyperviolent cartels operate and have a presence in all of Mexico as narco-terrorist criminal organizations. Both have been designated as Foreign Terrorist Organizations by the Trump administration.

The intricate web of relations among the drug cartels is a fascinating study in and of itself. They can be at war in one entity but collaborate as allies concerning certain businesses, including money laundering, petroleum theft, and drug trafficking, among others. It’s interesting to note that in 2016, the current leaders of the Chapitos, Ivan and Jesus Alfredo Guzman, were abducted during a celebration at La Leche nightclub in Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco, by the CJNG cartel. Numerous news sources reported that the then-leader of the Sinaloa Cartel, Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzmán, reminded the CJNG leader, “El Mencho,” that he had a son and several family members he could reach. The message was taken, and Chapo’s sons were released quickly.

Last week, the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration released its annual National Drug Threat Assessment report for 2025. The DEA NDTA report recognizes an alliance between the CJNG and the Chapitos faction of the Sinaloa Cartel. If true, the recent partnership of CJNG and Chapitos against the Mayitos will invariably escalate violence within the Sinaloa Cartel. Many speculate that it could expand to an all-out civil war among the various cartels throughout Mexico.

The following is an excerpt from the DEA NDTA report:

According to Mexican news sources, CJNG could capitalize on the conflict between the Los Mayitos and Los Chapitos factions of the Sinaloa Cartel by choosing to side in favor of their former rivals, Los Chapitos. A strategic alliance between CJNG and Los Chapitos has the potential to expand these groups’ territories, resources, firepower, and access to corrupt officials, which could result in a significant disruption to the existing balance of criminal power in Mexico and could serve to increase northbound drug flow and southbound weapons trafficking at the U.S.-Mexico border.

The CJNG’s recent expansion into hard-fought border states like Tamaulipas and Coahuila is a cause for immediate concern. The alliance between the Chapitos and the ultra-violent CJNG Cartel allows the Chapitos to survive another day; however, the alliance greatly benefits CJNG by allowing access to strongholds previously controlled by Los Chapitos.  Today, CJNG not only controls the Pacific side of Mexico but also has access and control over most of the northern bordering states of Mexico.

Astonishingly, that effectively hands over power to a large area of Mexico to the ultra-violent CJNG.

The Sinaloa Cartel must deploy many people in Colima, Zacatecas, Guanajuato, and Chihuahua to stop the advance of the CJNG cartel, which was taking advantage of the Sinaloa’s internal conflict. CJNG, now allied with the Chapitos, can chip away power from the Mayitos, who had been the wall of containment in Zacatecas and Guanajuato.

In contrast to the teaming up of major cartel organizations to combat their rivals, the Mexican government agencies tasked with tackling these criminal organizations appear to be at odds.

Secretary of Public Security, Omar García Harfuch, and General Ricardo Trevilla Trejo, head of National Defense, are not working well together. Several months ago, Radio Pasillo reported that the Mexican military blocked intelligence sharing and failed to provide additional weapons and ammunition to Secretary Harfuch. This internal conflict within the government could potentially hinder combating criminal organizations with any concrete, lasting effect.

President Claudia Sheinbaum’s bill to convert Omar García Harfuch virtually into Mexico’s security Czar, which would place the Mexican Military largely under his control, has seen no movement forward due to a “do-nothing, paralyzed Congress,” according to a source residing in Mexico. Not surprisingly, the military elite does not readily accept a civilian handing out orders and typically prefers answering directly to the President herself.

The influence and control of these criminal groups are so significant that the government cannot contain cartel activity. This is due to a combination of factors, including the vast resources and power of the cartels, the lack of coordination and cooperation within the government, and the sheer number of active fronts. Furthermore, the federal government can’t address so many active fronts. That’s a significant problem when battling cartels — even more so after major cartels form alliances. The cartels are testing the capabilities of the federal government, and at this moment, the cartels are dominating the Mexican landscape with near impunity.

These incessant armed conflicts have generated a critical threat that deeply affects local commerce, material resources, and human safety. In addition, an increasing human body count has converted the feeling of nervousness and anxiety to outright fear amongst the innocent populace of Mexico.

Editor’s Note: Breitbart News Foundation traveled to Mexico to recruit citizen journalists willing to risk their lives and expose the cartels silencing their communities. The writers would face certain death at the hands of the various cartels that operate throughout Mexico if a pseudonym were not used. Breitbart News Foundation’s Cartel Chronicles are published in both English and their original Spanish. This article was written by “Diego Cervantes.” 

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